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PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk
Public Expose
Thursday, 29 February 2024
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Disclaimer
These materials have been prepared by PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk (the “Company”) and have not been independently
verified. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made and no reliance should be placed on the accuracy,
fairness or completeness of the information presented or contained in these materials. The Company or any of its affiliates,
advisers or representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any information presented or
contained in these materials. The information presented or contained in these materials is subject to change without notice
and its accuracy is not guaranteed.
These materials contain statements that constitute forward-looking statements. These statements include descriptions
regarding the intent, belief or current expectations of the Company or its officers with respect to the consolidated results of
operations and financial condition of the Company. These statements can be recognized by the use of words such as
“expects,” “plan,” “will,” “estimates,” “projects,” “intends,” or words of similar meaning. Such forward-looking statements are not
guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ from those in the forward-
looking statements as a result of various factors and assumptions. The Company has no obligation and does not undertake to
revise forward-looking statements to reflect future events or circumstances.
These materials are for information purposes only and do not constitute or form part of an offer, solicitation or invitation of any
offer to buy or subscribe for any securities of the Company, in any jurisdiction, nor should it or any part of it form the basis of,
or be relied upon in any connection with, any contract, commitment or investment decision whatsoever. Any decision to
purchase or subscribe for any securities of the Company should be made after seeking appropriate professional advice.
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The Adaro Group: Three Business Pillars for a Bigger and
Greener business
Pursuing sustainable growth driven by the green economy
Stock ticker: ADRO Stock ticker: ADMR
Main operating pillar: pit-to-power integration to Growth pillar: metallurgical coal, and minerals Growth pillar: renewable energy to support
provide reliable and affordable energy and minerals processing for green economy downstream processing and diversification of
Indonesia’s energy mix
• Core thermal coal operations in Indonesia • Metallurgical coal operations in Indonesia
supported by the group’s mining services and through PT Adaro Minerals Indonesia Tbk (IDX: • Developing green energy sources: hydro,
logistics contractors, and the Adaro Power ADMR). solar, wind – and continue to actively
business through PT Adaro Energy Indonesia • Downstream processing of minerals for EV participate in tender of renewable power
Tbk (IDX: ADRO) battery ecosystem in Indonesia through plants.
• Provides the cash flows that serve as the aluminum facility at Kaltara • Supplies the renewable energy requirement
foundation to fund the Adaro Group’s • Through this pillar, Adaro Group is committed to for green downstream processing.
diversification strategy. achieve growth in a more sustainable manner.
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Snapshot of the Adaro Group
FY23 Production FY23 Sales/Core FY23 FCF
65.88 Mt (+5% Earnings $1.7 bn
YoY) $6.5 billion/$1.9 paid FY22 div of
Thermal and Met billion $1bn and FY23
split is 92%:8% *+royalty capex of $648m
FY23 Cash of $3.3 ADMR Adaro Green
bn investing in met investing in
to fund growth coal and 1.5 Mt of hydro, solar,
capex in minerals aluminum smelter and wind IPP
and green
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FY24 Guidance
provides cash to invest in EV value chain and renewables
Sales Volume (Mt) Consolidated Planned Strip Ratio (bcm/t)
65.71 65-67 5.1
59.2 61.34 4.7
54.40 54.14 4.4 4.3
51.58 4.2
3.8 3.8
2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F
Consolidated Capital Expenditure ($m)
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Summary of PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk
Adaro Group Production and Sales Core Earnings
70 70.00 3,500
60 60.00 3,000
Production (Mt)
50 50.00 2,500
USD (in millions)
Sales (MT)
40 40.00 2,000
30 30.00 1,500
20 20.00
1,000
10 10.00
500
0 0.00
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 -
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Tutupan Wara Paringin Balangan FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
ADMR MIP Sales
Capital Expenditure Adaro Group Coal Sales by Destination FY23
700
India Korea
600 12% Indonesia 6%
Indonesia
26% 13% Japan
500
Northeast Asia 32%
USD millions
400 18%
India
300 18%
200 China Southeast Asia
20% 24% China
100
31%
-
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 Thermal Coal Sales Metallurgical Coal Sales
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Summary of PT Adaro Minerals Indonesia Tbk
Adaro Minerals Key Financial Highlights Metcoal Sales Volume (Mt)
OPERATIONAL FY 23 FY 22 Change
We expect consistent volume 4.9 – 5.4
Production (Mt) 5.11 3.37 52%
growth, reaching 6 MT+ in the 4.5
Sales (Mt) 4.46 3.20 39% medium term.
Overburden removal (Mbcm) 18.70 8.32 125% 3.2
FINANCIAL ($ million) FY 23 FY 22 Change
2.3
Net Revenue 1,086 908 20%
Core Earnings 421 342 23%
Operational EBITDA 574 490 17%
Operational EBITDA Margin 53% 54% -1%
2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F
Sales by Destination FY23
Adaro Minerals Strip Ratio Remains Very Low
4.0
Korea
3.0
Indonesia 6%
13% Japan
32% 2.0
India 1.0
18%
0.0
China 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F
31%
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The World’s Largest Green Industrial Park
Strategically located in North Kalimantan
• Located in a very strategic location in terms of export
& import, and potential supply of mineral sources and
smelting industries
• Total area of 16,000 Ha, consists of 2 (two) large
overlay area – 11,500 Ha and 4,700 Ha
• Potential development of a large-scale public port to
support the industrial logistics
• Huge potential of hydro power plants development to
power the industrial estate
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Aluminium Smelter in Kaltara Industrial Park
Scope of project is 1.5 Mt of aluminum production
Additional capacity of up to
500,000 tpa of Green
Aluminum. Adaro plans for this
Additional production to be powered by hydro.
capacity of up to 500,000 tpa
aluminum.
Adaro may invest in the
smelter’s power generation.
Power generation will likely be a
Production capacity: 500,000 tpa hybrid of coal and renewables.
aluminum. Adaro is investing in the
smelter’s power generation.
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Progress of Aluminum Smelter
• Smelter: KAI has completed the soil investigation, land
levelling, and piling work for the baking furnace facilities.
In 1Q24, KAI will focus on piling and foundation activities
in the smelter area.
• Jetty: continue the piling work for facilities dedicated to
receiving inbound raw materials in the jetty area.
• Power plant: conducted piling works at power plant area.
• Supporting facilities
o Completed the land clearing for the permanent dorms
and construction of ancillary facilities such as outdoor
laydown warehouse, heavy equipment workshop, and
batching plant.
o In parallel, started the piling works for temporary
camp, indoor warehouse, and brick factory.
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Adaro Green
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Indonesia’s Largest Hydro Power Plant
• Planned installed capacity of 1,375 MW, with the
potential to generate approximately 9 Terawatt hours
(TWh) per annum.
• Located in North Kalimantan, this power plant will
provide affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy to
support the Kaltara Industrial Park. COD is estimated
in 2030.
• Will use the Concrete Faced Rockfill Dam (CFRD),
designed with a dam crest height of 235m and crest
length of 815m.This hydro power plant will have one
of the world’s tallest dams.
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One of Indonesia’s Largest Wind IPPs
• Planned installed capacity of 70 MW with battery
energy storage system (BESS) of 10 MWh.
• Located in South Kalimantan, this power plant will
provide affordable sustainable energy to support
PLN’s grid within South Kalimantan. COD is estimated
in 2025.
• This is a consortium made up of Total Eren, PT Adaro
Clean Energy Indonesia, and PT PJBI (PLN
subsidiary’s IPP).
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Integrating the Value Chain for Solar PV and BESS
• Signed MoU to develop the industrialization of solar
panel supply chain in Indonesia, which include solar
photovoltaic and battery energy storage systems.
• Supporting the government’s plan in development of
domestic solar power industry and infrastructure.
• This is a consortium made up of PT Adaro Power, PT
Medco Power Indonesia, and PT Energi Baru TBS.
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Recently Energized Captive Solar PV
~600 kWp to supply to our mining area
o We have installed 130 kWp PV Rooftop, and another
468 kWp PV Floating (one of the largest operational
floating PV in Indonesia)
o The project is expected to generate 156,000 kWh/year
and serves a captive market to support Adaro Group’s
mining operation.
o Environmental impact of this project includes replacing
33,000 liters of diesel per year, and avoiding emission
of 98 ton CO2/year.
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Adaro Energy
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Adaro Energy Indonesia’s Performance
Continue to deliver consistent results and strong cash flows
OPERATIONAL FY23 FY22 Change
Production (Mt) 65.88 62.88 5%
Sales (Mt) 65.71 61.34 7%
OB removal (Mbcm) 286.35 235.68 22%
FINANCIAL ($ millions, unless indicated) FY23 FY22 Change
Revenue 6,518 8,102 -20%
Core Earnings 1,873 3,013 -38%
Operational EBITDA 2,554 5,030 -49%
Cash 3,311 4,067 -19%
Net Debt (Cash) (1,936) (2,599) -26%
Capex 648 424 53%
Free Cash Flow 1,694 2,769 -39%
Operational EBITDA Margin 39% 62% -23%
Net Debt (Cash) to Equity (x) (0.26) (0.40) -35%
Net Debt (Cash) to Last 12 months Operational EBITDA (x) (0.76) (0.52) 47%
Cash from Operations to Capex (x) 1.99 9.66 -79%
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Large Reserves and Diverse Portfolio across Indonesia
and Australia
1 2 3 4 As of 31 December 2022, AEI
PT Adaro Minerals
Adaro Indonesia: 88.5% Balangan Coal MIP: 75% stake has more than 8 billion tonnes
Indonesia Tbk (AMI):
Existing, Companies: S Sumatra (Bt) of resources and 1.3 Bt of
Central and East
S Kalimantan S Kalimantan sub-bituminous reserves across thermal and
Kalimantan
sub-bituminous sub-bituminous Reserves 207 Mt
Reserves: 682 Mt Reserves 118Mt
Metallurgical coal
Resources 301 Mt
metallurgical coal – providing us
Reserves: 165 Mt with flexibility in the coal market.
Resources: 3.2 Bt Resources: 257 Mt
Resources: 975 Mt
5
BEP: 18.5% stake with
option to acquire 90% 5
E Kalimantan
sub-bituminous
Resources 3.3 Bt Kalimantan
Sumatra 3
Sulawesi
6
6
Kestrel Coal Mine NT 1
QLD 4 2
48% of 80%
Queensland, Australia WA
Premium HCC SA
NSW
Reserves: 184 Mt
Resources: 421 Mt
Java
VIC
TAS
Note: Reserves and Resources numbers above are before taking into account AEI’s equity ownership
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Regulatory Updates
Conversion of CCOW to IUPK
• Continuation of AI’s CCOW.
• Government Regulation (PP No 15 of 2022) stipulates the changes in the commercial terms: royalty rate,
CIT rate, and additional profit sharing with the regional and central government.
CCOW IUPK
1 Royalty rate 13.5% 14% - 28%
2 CIT 45% 22%
3 Non-tax state revenue (government’s portion – from
net income)
- Central Gov't - 4%
- Regional Gov't - 6%
• In line with conversion to IUPK, AI’s concession size has been reduced, but does not affect our operation
or our reserves.
Change in the royalty rate of IUP
• This impacts MIP and Balangan Coal mines, representing approximately 17% of 2022 production. The
royalty going forward will be based on HBA pricing and could increase to between 7% - 10.5% from 3% -
5%.
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Regulatory Updates
Change in the formula of Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA)
• Indonesia has introduced the reformulation of HBA to better reflect the value of Indonesian coal. The new
HBA has three coal categories: HBA (6,322 kcal GAR), HBA I (5,200 kcal GAR), and HBA II (4,200 kcal
GAR).
• The HBA will be derived from an average of actually traded Indonesian prices – 70% is based on the
average price of the second and third weeks of the previous month and 30% is based on the average
price of the first week of the previous month and the fourth week of the previous two months.
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Solid Financials Backed by Strong Operations
Financial position continues to improve Strong cash balance and free cash flow generation
5,000
2,500 60%
50% 4,000
2,000
40% 3,000
1,500
30% 2,000
1,000
20%
1,000
500 10%
-
- 0% FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Interest Bearing Debt Debt to Equity Cash (million US$) FCF (million US$) Capex (million US$)
Adaro Historical Production
70 8.00
60 7.00
6.00
50
Production (Mt)
Strip Ratio (x)
5.00
40
4.00
30
3.00
20
2.00
10 1.00
0 -
Tutupan Wara Paringin Balangan ADMR MIP SR 21
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Industry Leading Efficiency
One of the lowest cost operators in Indonesia
Adaro’s estimated coal cash cost breakdown (FY23) Electrification to reduce the usage of diesel gensets
Fixed
overhead,
Coal 5%
processing
, 10% Mining,
Freight & 35% - 40%
handling,
20%
Fuel, 25%
- 30%
Strong operational EBITDA generation and healthy operational EBITDA margin
6,000 62% 70%
▪ Consistently delivers on operational EBITDA target
5,000 53% 60%
and performed in-line with guidance.
4,000
50% ▪ Healthy operational EBITDA margin on the back of
40% 39% 39%
35% 35%
better cost control from integrated business model.
40%
3,000
5,030 30%
2,000
20%
2,554
1,000 2,104 10%
1,315 1,408 1,207 883
- 0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Operational EBITDA (US$ M) Operational EBITDA Margin 22
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Well Positioned Product and Strong Customer Base
Focused on Asia
Envirocoal is among the lowest pollutant content coal in the seaborne market
Ash content: 2%-3% (adb) Nitrogen content : 0.9% - 1.0% (daf) Sulfur content: 0.1% - 0.25% (adb)
Thermal Coal Sales by Destination (FY23) Customer type by volume (FY23)
India
12% Others, 10%
Indonesia
26%
Northeast Asia
18%
*others include cement,
pulp & paper, and industrial
Southeast Asia
China
24%
20%
Power Plant,
90%
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Operates Mining Services and Logistics to Ensure
Operational Excellence
Key part of our vertical integration.
Ensures operational excellence, productivity
improvement and timely reliable delivery to
customers.
Stable profitability margin buffer against the volatility
in coal price.
Focus on providing services for companies in the
Adaro Group.
Units FY23 FY22 FY23 vs FY22
Overburden Removal Mbcm 223.08 189.60 18%
SIS
Coal Transport to Port Mt 60.91 59.51 2%
MBP Coal barging Mt 63.53 57.33 11%
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One of Indonesia’s largest IPPs
Adaro Power’s gross power generation capacity stands at 2,260 MW
Makmur Sejahtera Wisesa – CFPP
Size / Tech. 2 x 30 MW CFB technology
Shareholders 100% Adaro Power
COD #1 Jun 2013, #2 Feb 2014
Availability Factor 90% (Avg. FY23)
Adaro Mining Current: 11.7 MW
Electrification Plan: additional 17.9 MW
Makmur Sejahtera Wisesa – Solar PV
Size 130 kWp + 467 kWp Bhimasena Power Indonesia – CFPP
Shareholder 100% Adaro Power Size / Tech. 2 x 1,000 MW Ultra Super Critical
COD Q3 2018 (for 130 kWp) & 467 kWp COD Shareholders 34% AP, 34% JPower, 32% Itochu
27 December 2021
Project cost USD 4.2 billion
Project cost USD 800,000 (approx.)
Availability Factor 85.2% (Avg. FY23)
Electricity 793.67 MWh (FY23)
produced
Apart from improving the performance of its already-operated
Tanjung Power Indonesia – CFPP
power plants and completing the construction, Adaro Power
Size / Tech. 2 x 100 MW CFB technology continues to study renewable power projects such as
Shareholders 65% AP, 35% Korea EWP biomass, wind power, and solar PV to support PLN through
Project cost USD 545 million
unsolicited proposal and tenders. Adaro Power is also in the
process of developing captive use power generation projects
COD 2019
for the Group’s other business units such as IBT (Genset &
Availability Factor 92.22% (Avg. FY23) Solar PV) and ADMR (Mini-hydro)
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Owns & Operates 1,670 lps of Water Treatment Plants
Also Supports Mining Operations through Slurry Management Business Unit
Dumai Tirta Persada 1 2 Drupadi Tirta Gresik
3
Grenex Tirta Mandiri
Location : Dumai, Riau Location : Gresik, East Java
Location : Bekasi, West Java
Size : 450 lps Size : 400 lps
Size : 200 lps
Adaro Shares : 49% Adaro Shares : 100%
Adaro Shares : 49%
Status : First phase Status : In operation
Status : Started construction
(50 lps) completed since 2012
Adaro Wamco Prima 4 1
Location : Tanjung,
South Kalimantan
Business : Mining pump services
Adaro Shares : 60% 4
Status : Operation
6 5
Drupadi Tirta Intan 5
Location : Banjar, South Kalimantan
Size : 500 lps 3
Adaro Shares : 100% 2
Status : In operation since 2012
Adaro Tirta Mentaya 6 Adaro Water is currently in the process to achieve operational excellence through
Location : Sampit, Central Kalimantan continuous improvement in its operating subsidiaries, including WTPs operations and
Size : 320 lps (contract), 400 lps (capacity) slurry pumps operations. Meanwhile, on the construction side, Adaro Water continues
Adaro Shares : 90% to ensure that the project can achieve its goals in terms of schedule, budget & quality.
Status : In operation upto 250 lps From business development perspective, Adaro Water continues to actively seeking
for new projects through PPP, non PPP and acquisition.
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PT Adaro Minerals Indonesia Tbk (IDX:ADMR)
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Adaro Minerals Indonesia at a Glance
Indonesia’s leading metallurgical coal producer with low-cost, efficient operation supported by
Adaro Group’s integrated supply chain network
Five CCoW holders located in Central and East Kalimantan, Indonesia.
Large coal reserves and resources base which supports long-term sustainable growth.
Coal reserves: 165.4 Mt. Coal resources: 975 Mt.
Coal production in FY22 reached 3.37 Mt, and in FY23 coal production reached 5.11 Mt
(▲ 52% y-o-y). Aiming at 6 Mtpa in 2025.
Strong demand profile from blue-chip steel companies. Current customers are located in
China, Japan and Indonesia.
Offers coal supply diversification for customers in a market dominated by Australia, Canada
and the US.
Close proximity to key markets offers customers with more competitive cost and shorter
transportation time.
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Company Overview
CCoWs Locations Coal Resources and Reserves
Total Coal Total Coal
Compliance
Company / Locality Reserves Resources
Standard
(Mt) (Mt)
LC - Haju
2.3 4.3 JORC
(Metallurgical)
MC - Lampunut
84.3 100.3 JORC
(Metallurgical )
JC - Juloi Northwest
- 629.9 JORC
(Metallurgical)
JC - Bumbun
55.5 174.5 JORC
(Metallurgical)
KC - Luon
17.7 50.9 JORC
(Metallurgical)
SBC - Dahlia Arwana
5.6 15.0 JORC
(Metallurgical)
TOTAL 165.4 975.0
Coal production (in million tonnes)
6.0 5.1
4.0 3.4
2.3
1.9
2.0 1.1
0.0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
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Supply Chain: from Coal Terminal to Vessel
Loading Points
Barge-to-barge Barge-to-Barge
▪ Barge-to-Barge transfers are done at
Tuhup Port Taboneo and North Kelanis using FC
A Hasan Basri
Barge-to-Vessel
B
Tumpung Barge-to-Vessel (Taboneo)
Laung
C
Kalahein ▪ Safe for loading for a wide range of
Bridge
Teluk Timbau
ISP
- vessel sizes
ISP
▪ Floating Office at Permata Barito
Indonesia Bulk Terminal Indonesia Bulk Terminal
▪ Located at Pulau Laut, Southeastern
coast of South Kalimantan.
▪ 11 Mtpa capacity
▪ Up to 82kt DWT
Taboneo ▪ Dedicated stockpiles of 640kt
Anchorage
Indonesia
Bulk 30
Terminal
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Sustainability and Green Initiatives
Page 32
Balance of People, Planet and Purpose
Key programs in Corporate Social Responsibility Green Initiatives
Education Economic Health
development
Solar PV Biodiesel
Environmental Socio-cultural
enhancement Enrichment
Biomass Co-Firing NZE Statement
MSCI ESG Rating History Sixth PROPER Gold Award
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Improving Environmental Performance
Reduced total energy consumption by 21% y-o-y …and reduced GHG emission (scope 1) by 22% y-o-y
2,500,000
35,000
30,000 2,000,000
25,000
Ton Co2 eq
1,500,000
Terajoule
20,000
15,000 1,000,000
10,000
500,000
5,000
- -
2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
Innovative projects to improve efficiency and environmental performance
Fleet Management Kelanis Smart Inverter
System reduces Solar Cell reduces
queueing time and diesel usage and CO2
energy used emission
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Ecosystem Restoration and Carbon Capture
Through Adaro Land Pillar, we have subsidiaries which own forest
management permits for ecosystem restoration and forest management
permits for carbon absorption.
PT Alam Sukses Lestari holds license to use timber product – ecosystem
restoration in natural forest which allows restoration of forest ecosystem
to achieve balanced biodiversity.
PT Hutan Amanah Lestari holds license for utilization of carbon
absorption and is one of the largest holders of such license in Indonesia.
We expect that once operational, carbon trading will be the main business
of this company.
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Awards and Recognitions
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
PROPER green award PROPER green award PROPER green award PROPER green award PROPER green award
Ministry of Environment & Ministry of Environment & Ministry of Environment & Ministry of Environment & Ministry of Environment &
Forestry Forestry Forestry Forestry Forestry
Aditama gold award Cultural based community Global CSR bronze award Aditama gold award Aditama gold award
For environmental excellence empowerment award For community-led sanitation For environment excellence in For environment excellence in
in the coal sector Awards in several categories Annual Global CSR & Summit the coal sector the coal sector
Ministry of Energy & mineral Corporate Forum for Ministry of Energy & mineral Ministry of Energy & mineral
resources Community Development & Padmamitra award resources resources
Ministry of Human Dev For poverty alleviation
Bronze sustainability award Ministry of Social Affairs Best of environmental Best of coal mining service
For sustainable investment Bakti Husada award management & safety award business management &
RobecoSAM For community health Ministry of Energy & mineral safety award
development resources Ministry of Energy & mineral
Ministry of Health resources
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
PROPER gold award PROPER gold award PROPER gold award PROPER gold award PROPER gold award
Ministry of Environment & Ministry of Environment & Ministry of Environment & Ministry of Environment & Ministry of Environment &
Forestry Forestry Forestry Forestry Forestry
Global CSR award, one gold MSCI ESG Ratings upgraded MSCI ESG Ratings upgraded Global CSR Gold Award Subroto award
and two silver to BB to BBB For Excellence in Provision of For Most Innovative
For early childhood education MSCI MSCI Literacy and Education Community Development
program, CSR Leadership and Annual Global CSR & Summit Ministry of Energy & mineral
environmental excellence in Charity and Community Best Environmental resources
leader program. Impact Excellence Award - Silver Green Initiative Award
Annual Global CSR & Summit Coaltrans Asia Global CSR Summit & Awards Recognizing the company’s Listed on Forbes’s World
initiatives to diversify and Best Employers 2023
Best Implementation of Aditama award increase share of new and Forbes’ Global List
Good Mining Practices Good mining practices renewable energy
MoEMR MoEMR Katadata
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Industry Outlook
Page 37
Prices Remain Near Historical Highs
700
600
500
400
US$
300
200
100
0
May-21
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
May-17
Nov-17
Mar-18
May-18
Nov-18
May-19
Nov-19
May-20
Nov-20
Nov-21
May-22
Nov-22
May-23
Nov-23
Jan-17
Mar-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Sep-23
Jan-24
NEX ICI 3 ICI 4 HBA HCC PLV FOB Australia
▪ Prices continue to fluctuate.
▪ Demand from China has supported Indonesian thermal coal imports.
▪ Indonesian coal demand is still expected to be high due to its competitiveness and unique characteristics.
▪ The year-to-date average of Premium low-volatile hard coking coal FOB Australia price declined by 19% year-on-year, but remain well
supported, reaching nearly US$300/mt on average.
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Seaborne Thermal Coal Demand and Supply Outlook
Global thermal coal imports demand (Mt) Global thermal coal supply (Mt)
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
Million Tonnes
800
Million Tonnes
600
600
400 400
200 200
0 0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
China India East Asia
Indonesia Australia Russia Colombia South Africa USA Others
Southeast Asia Other South Asia Middle East
Sources: Adaro Analysis
▪ Coal remains as significant part of energy mix in emerging economies in Asia
▪ Despite push towards renewable energy, emerging economies in Asia still rely on coal for electricity generation due to its availability and affordability.
▪ As the world aims to reduce carbon emission, demand for coal will be affected.
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Seaborne Metallurgical Coal Demand and Supply Outlook
Global metallurgical coal imports demand (Mt) Global metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
350 350
300 300
250 250
Million Tonnes
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Australia Canada United States Mongolia
China India Japan South Korea Europe Others Russia Mozambique Indonesia Others
Sources: Adaro Analysis
Underinvestment and Robust Demand expected to lead to Undersupplied market
• The long-term outlook shows a positive and stable growth of demand and supply.
• India to be the main driver of growth for the next decade, outpacing China and Japan.
• Australia continues to be the main supplier in seaborne market, but supply growth will be constrained due to underinvestment in some supplying
countries.
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Indonesian Long-Term Demand Remains Robust
Supported by growing downstream activities in Indonesia
Coal Fired Power Plant Capacities in 2021 - 2030
Coke capacity increase
25
50
20
40
Million Tonnes
15
GW
30
10
20
5
10
0
2021 2022 2023 2024
0 Risun Wei Shan Detian Coking KinXiang Kinrui Dexin Steel
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Krakatau Steel Krakatau POSCO Tsingshan Indocoke
Source: RUPTL 2021 – 2030, ESDM 2022, APBI
• CFPP capacity continues to increase to support the transition in minerals processing and refinery in Indonesia.
• Indonesia coke capacities are expected to reach 21 Mt in 2024, which translates to 35 Mt of metallurgical coal consumption.
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Thank you
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Names mentioned 23 people and organisations named in the text · linked when the evidence is strong
unresolved
org
PT PJBI
p.13
unresolved
org
PT Adaro Power
p.14
unresolved
org
PT Energi Baru TBS.
p.14
unresolved
org
Indonesia Tbk
p.18
unresolved
—
COD
p.25
unresolved
—
Availability Factor
p.25 ×2
unresolved
—
Electrification
p.25
unresolved
org
PT Alam Sukses Lestari
p.34
unresolved
org
PT Hutan Amanah Lestari
p.34
unresolved
org
Ministry of Environment
p.35 ×10
unresolved
org
Ministry of Energy
p.35 ×6
unresolved
org
Ministry of Human Dev
p.35
unresolved
org
Ministry of Social Affairs
p.35
unresolved
org
Ministry of Health
p.35
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