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7/5/23, 8:07 PM Fitch Revises Outlook on XL Axiata to Negative, Affirms at 'BBB' and 'AAA(idn)' FitchRatings RATING ACTION COMMENTARY Fitch Revises Outlook on XL Axiata to Negative, Affirms at 'BBB' and 'AAAlidn)' Tue 27 Jun, 2023 -4:55 AM ET Fitch Ratings - Jakarta/Singapore - 27 Jun 2023: Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Indonesian mobile operator PT XL Axiata Tbk's (XL) Long-Term Foreign- and Local- Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to Negative from Stable, and affirmed the IDRs at 'BBB! At the same time, Fitch Ratings Indonesia has revised the Outlook on the National Long-Term Rating to Negative from Stable, and affirmed the rating at 'AAA(idn)' 'AAA' National Ratings denote the highest rating assigned by the agency in its National Rating scale for that country. This rating is assigned to issuers or obligations with the lowest expectation of default risk relative to all other issuers or obligations in the same country or monetary union. The Negative Outlook reflects the parent Axiata Group Berhad's (Axiata) weaker credit profile and our view that Axiata's EBITDA net leverage will likely remain elevated in the medium term, as we expect it to generate afree cash flow (FCF) deficit on high capex and shareholder reguirements. KEY RATING DRIVERS Strong Linkages with Parent: XL's 'BBB' rating reflects the credit strength of its parent, Axiata, underpinned by 'High' legal and strategic incentives for Axiata to support XL under Fitch's Parent and Subsidiary Linkage (PSL) Rating Criteria. The Negative Outlook on XL's IDR reflects our view of Axiata's higher net leverage following the debt-funded acguisition of PT Link Net Tbk and telecom towers in the Philippines in 2022. Weakened Credit Profile of Parent: We believe Axiata's EBITDA net leverage is likely to remain elevated following the Link Net and Philippine towers acguisitions. We forecast that Axiata's FCF generation will likely remain limited, given high capex and shareholder https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-outlook-on-xI-axiata-to-negative-affirms-at-bbb-aaa-idn-27-06-2023 1/12
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7/5/23, 8:07 PM Fitch Revises Outlook on XL Axiata to Negative, Affirms at 'BBB' and 'AAA(idn)' return reguirements. Successful monetisation of non-core assets or divestment of minority stakes in subsidiaries will be crucial for Axiata to achieve its 2.5x gross debt/EBITDA target on areported basis (1023: 3.4x, including Celcom's shareholder loan repayment in June). We consider Axiata a "stronger parent", with business in more than six Asian countries and a larger business scale. Axiata's other subsidiaries and associates have strong market positions, with 3096-40X market shares in Bangladesh, Cambodia and Nepal, 584 in Sri Lanka and over 50X in Malaysia. Cross-Default Clause: Axiata's 'High' legal incentive to support XL is based on the presence of a cross-default clause in its USD1 billion euro medium-term note and USD1 billion multi- currency sukuk programmes, which make up 654 of Axiata's holding company and non- operating-company level debt. A default by a principal subsidiary, including XL, would trigger the cross-default clause in the US dollar debt instruments. The longest maturity of these instruments is 2050, providing some certainty of permanence. Strategic Importance: The strategic incentive to support XL is 'High', as XL's revenue and EBTIDA contribution to Axiata have become increasingly important for the parent. XL contributed 374 of Axiata's consolidated revenue and 404 of EBITDA in 1023. The planned fixed-mobile convergence programme between XL and Link Net is a critical move for the Axiata group to capture Indonesia's underpenetrated fixed broadband market. XLs SCP at 'bb#': XL's Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) of 'bb-' reflects its weaker market share of below 204 and smaller scale compared with state-owned PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (Telkom, BBB/Stable) and PT Indosat Tbk (Indosat, BBB-/Stable). However, we expect XL's business diversification to improve substantially with the acguisition of Link Net's fixed broadband subscribers. The acguisition is expected to be completed by end- 2023, should it receive all of the reguired regulatory approvals. High Ratings Headroom for SCP: We believe XL will maintain sufficient ratings headroom for its SCP despite the higher leverage. We expect its EBITDA net leverage to deteriorate to 1.2x-1.6x in 2023-2024 on higher capex from the upcoming 5G spectrum auction. Upfront costs and annual fees for the additional 5G spectrum may have a larger impact on XL's financial profile, given its smaller EBITDA scale. Fixed-Mobile Convergence: XL aims to take over Link Net's 750,000 fixed broadband customers and obtain access to its larger fibre network under the companies' reorganisation plan. This will allow XL to scale up its fixed broadband business guickly without significant capex investment. We believe the revenue contribution from fixed https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-outlook-on-xI-axiata-to-negative-affirms-at-bbb-aaa-idn-27-06-2023 2/12
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7/5/23, 8:07 PM Fitch Revises Outlook on XL Axiata to Negative, Affirms at 'BBB' and 'AAA(idn)' broadband could increase to 154, from less than 296 in 2022, after the reorganisation. However, the parties are still negotiating the transaction details, and hence Fitch's rating case does not include the additional revenue from Link Net subscribers. Upcoming 5G Spectrum Auction: The analogue TV switch-off is still ongoing in some regions, and the 5G spectrum assignment in Indonesia could be delayed further due to the arrest of Indonesia's communication and information technology minister over a corruption case. We assume the 700MHz spectrum auction will only occur in 4023 and the 3.5GHz spectrum auction in 2024, and that XL will acguire 20MHz bandwidth in the 700MHz spectrum and 50MHz in 3.5GHz. Total spectrum upfront payment is estimated to be IDR2.4 trillion for the 700MHz and IDR1.5 trillion for the 3.5GHz, based on the spectrum auction results in Indonesia and other Asian markets. DERIVATION SUMMARY XL:s IDRs factor in implied support from Axiata, as we deem overall linkages between the two entities as strong. Under our PSL criteria, we egualise XL's ratings with those of Axiata on 'High' legal and strategic ties between the two entities. XL remains the largest contributor to Axiata's EBITDA and capex. XL's SCP of 'bbt" reflects its smaller revenue market share of 174 and smaller business scale compared with Telkom. Telkom, through its 65X-owned subsidiary, PT Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel), has around 5196 revenue share of the mobile market. Moreover, Telkomsel has a wider EBITDA margin and lower net leverage than XL. However, Telkom's IDRs continue to be capped by Indonesia's sovereign rating (BBB/Stable) because of the strong links between the company and the state through control of the board and key operating and financial decisions. We rate XL's SCP one notch lower than Indosat's SCP of 'bbb-', reflecting the latter's stronger credit profile after the Indosat-Hutch merger. The merged company has larger mobile revenue market share (1023 Indosat: 2596, XL: 1796) and spectrum assets (Indosat: 135Mhz, XL: 90Mhz) than XL while maintaining high ratings headroom below its negative sensitivity of 2.3x EBITDA net leverage ratio. XL is rated above state-owned energy company PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGN, BBB-/AA-(idn)/Stable). XL's IDR reflects the credit strength of Axiata, whereas PGN's IDR and National Rating are one notch below those of its immediate parent, PT Pertamina https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-outlook-on-xI-axiata-to-negative-affirms-at-bbb-aaa-idn-27-06-2023 3/12
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7/5/23, 8:07 PM Fitch Revises Outlook on XL Axiata to Negative, Affirms at 'BBB' and 'AAA(idn)' (Persero) (BBB/Stable), based on our assessment of the linkages between the two companies. KEY ASSUMPTIONS - Revenue growth of 74 in 2023 (2022: 8.9X), slowing slightly to 64 in 2024-2025, - EBITDA margin of 28X in 2023 (2022: 2746) and deteriorating to 254-264 in 2024-2025 due to higher annual freguency fees, - Capex intensity increases to 3196-34X (2022: 30X) during 2023-2024 due to upfront costs to acguire 5G spectrums: - 2023 dividend payment of IDR552 million, or 49X of 2022 net profit (2022: 424), with pay-out ratio remaining at 50X in 2024-2025, - No MBA and/or divestment projected in our rating case, - Effective interest rate on borrowing of 7.54 in 2023 (2022: 6.44) and declining to 6.6X in 2024-2025. RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade: - Stablisation of Fitch's credit view of Axiata will lead to a stabilisation of the Outlook on XL's international and national ratings, provided linkages between the entities remain intact. - No upgrade is possible for the National Long-Term Rating, as it is already at the highest level on the national scale. Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade: -A downgrade of Fitch's credit view of Axiata. - Weakening of linkages with Axiata. BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-outlook-on-xI-axiata-to-negative-affirms-at-bbb-aaa-idn-27-06-2023 4112
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7/5/23, 8:07 PM Fitch Revises Outlook on XL Axiata to Negative, Affirms at 'BBB' and 'AAA(idn)' International scale credit ratings of Non-Financial Corporate issuers have abest-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches over athree-year rating horizon: and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D' Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the methodology used to determine sector-specific best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579. LIOGUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE Reasonable Refinancing Capability: XL has repaid most of its debt maturing in 2023 with proceeds raised from eguity rights issues in December 2022 and January 2023. As a result, debt maturing in 2023 and 2024 is less than IDR1.8 trillion at end-1023, and refinancing reguirements in the next two years are significantly reduced. Cash balance declined to IDR1.7 trillion at end-1023, from IDR5.2 trillion at end-2022. XL also has around IDR1.36 trillion of undrawn but uncommitted facilities from UOB Indonesia that expire in 2025. We believe XL has reasonable refinancing ability, with access to debt and capital markets and strong relationships with local and foreign lenders. All outstanding bank loans are provided on a clean basis, reflecting its solid banking access. Its entire debt is denominated in Indonesian rupiah, in line with revenue and costs, while 5696 of borrowings are priced in floating interest rates as of 1023, lower than the 649 at end-2022. ISSUER PROFILE XL is Indonesia's third-largest mobile operator and is 66.5396-owned by Malaysia-based Axiata. XL jointly acguired Indonesia's second-largest fixed broadband provider, Link Net, with Axiata in 2022. The integration with Link Net will scale up XLs fixed broadband business without significant capex. REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria. PUBLIC RATINGS WITH CREDIT LINKAGE TO OTHER RATINGS https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-outlook-on-xI-axiata-to-negative-affirms-at-bbb-aaa-idn-27-06-2023 5/12
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7/5/23, 8:07 PM Fitch Revises Outlook on XL Axiata to Negative, Affirms at 'BBB' and 'AAA(idn)' XLs 'BBB' rating and Negative Outlook reflects the credit strength of its parent, Axiata, based on the strong overall linkage between the entities. ESG CONSIDERATIONS Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3' This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/esg RATING ACTIONS ENTITY /DEBT $ RATING PRIOR £ PT XL Axiata Tbk AAAfidn) Rating NatI LT Outlook Stable AAAfidn) Rating Outlook Negative Affirmed BBB Rating LTIDR BBB Rating Outlook Negative Outlook Stable Affirmed LCLTIDR BBB Rating Outlook Negati BBB Rating ating Outlook Negative Outlook Stable Affirmed senior unsecured AAAfidn) VIEW ADDITIONAL RATING DETAILS FITCH RATINGS ANALYSTS NatILT — AAAlidn) Affirmed https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-financef/fitch-revises-outlook-on-xI-axiata-to-negative-affirms-at-bbb-aaa-idn-27-06-2023 6/12
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7/5/23, 8:07 PM Fitch Revises Outlook on XL Axiata to Negative, Affirms at 'BBB' and 'AAA(idn)' Wenny Anthony Analyst Primary Rating Analyst National #62 214063 2249 wenny.anthony@fitchratings.com PT Fitch Ratings Indonesia DBS Bank Tower 24th Floor, Suite 2403 Jl. Prof.Dr. Satrio Kav 3-5 Jakarta 12940 Mengjia Lu Senior Analyst Primary Rating Analyst International 465 6796 7259 mengjia.lu@fitchratings.com Fitch Ratings Singapore Pte Ltd. 1 Wallich Street #19-01 Guoco Tower Singapore 078881 Nitin Soni Senior Director Secondary Rating Analyst 465 6796 7235 nitin.soni@fitchratings.com Steve Durose Managing Director Committee Chairperson #61 2 8256 0307 steve.durose@fitchratings.com MEDIA CONTACTS Leslie Tan Singapore 465 6796 7234 leslie.tan@thefitchgroup.com Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-outlook-on-xI-axiata-to-negative-affirms-at-bbb-aaa-idn-27-06-2023 7/12
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7/5/23, 8:07 PM Fitch Revises Outlook on XL Axiata to Negative, Affirms at 'BBB' and 'AAA(idn)' PARTICIPATION STATUS The rated entity (and/or its agents) or, in the case of structured finance, one or more of the transaction parties participated in the rating process except that the following issuer/s), if any, did not participate in the rating process, or provide additional information, beyond the issuer's available public disclosure. APPLICABLE CRITERIA National Scale Rating Criteria (pub. 23 Dec 2020) Corporates Recovery Ratings and Instrument Ratings Criteria (pub. 09 Apr 2021) (including rating assumption sensitivity) Sukuk Rating Criteria (pub. 13 Jun 2022) Corporate Rating Criteria (pub. 29 Oct 2022) (including rating assumption sensitivity) Country-Specific Treatment of Recovery Ratings Criteria (pub. 04 Mar 2023) Sector Navigators: Addendum to the Corporate Rating Criteria (pub. 13 May 2023) Exposure Draft: Climate Vulnerability in Corporate Ratings Criteria (pub. 10 Jun 2023) (including rating assumption sensitivity) Parent and Subsidiary Linkage Rating Criteria (pub. 17 Jun 2023) APPLICABLE MODELS Numbers in parentheses accompanying applicable model(s) contain hyperlinks to criteria providing description of models). Corporate Monitoring & Forecasting Model (COMFORT Model), v8.1.0 (1) ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form Solicitation Status Endorsement Policy ENDORSEMENT STATUS PT XL Axiata Tbk EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed PT XL Axiata Tbk EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-outlook-on-xI-axiata-to-negative-affirms-at-bbb-aaa-idn-27-06-2023 8/12
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7/5/23, 8:07 PM Fitch Revises Outlook on XL Axiata to Negative, Affirms at 'BBB' and 'AAA(idn)' All Fitch Ratings (Fitch) credit ratings are subject to certain limitations and disclaimers. Please read these limitations and disclaimers by following this link: https://www.fitchratings.com/understandingcreditratings. In addition, the following https://www.fitchratings.com/rating-definitions-document details Fitch's rating definitions for each rating scale and rating categories, including definitions relating to default. ESMA and the FCA are reguired to publish historical default rates in a central repository in accordance with Articles 11(2) of Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 September 2009 and The Credit Rating Agencies (Amendment etc.) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 respectively. Published ratings, criteria, and methodologies are available from this site at all times. Fitch's code of conduct, confidentiality, conflicts of interest, affiliate firewall, compliance, and other relevant policies and procedures are also available from the Code of Conduct section of this site. Directors and shareholders' relevant interests are available at https://www.fitchratings.com/site/regulatory. Fitch may have provided another permissible or ancillary service to the rated entity or its related third parties. Details of permissible or ancillary service(s) for which the lead analyst is based in an ESMA- or FCA-registered Fitch Ratings company (or branch of such a company) can be found on the entity summary page for this issuer on the Fitch Ratings website. In issuing and maintaining its ratings and in making other reports (including forecast information), Fitch relies on factual information it receives from issuers and underwriters and from other sources Fitch believes to be credible. Fitch conducts a reasonable investigation of the factual information relied upon by it in accordance with its ratings methodology, and obtains reasonable verification of that information from independent sources, to the extent such sources are available for a given security or in a given jurisdiction. The manner of Fitch's factual investigation and the scope of the third-party verification it obtains will vary depending on the nature of the rated security and its issuer, the reguirements and practices in the jurisdiction in which the rated security is offered and sold and/or the issuer is located, the availability and nature of relevant public information, access to the management of the issuer and its advisers, the availability of pre-existing third-party verifications such as audit reports, agreed-upon procedures letters, appraisals, actuarial reports, engineering reports, legal opinions and other reports provided by third parties, the availability of independent and competent third- party verification sources with respect to the particular security or in the particular jurisdiction of the issuer, and a variety of other factors. Users of Fitch's ratings and reports should understand that neither an enhanced factual investigation nor any third-party verification can ensure that all of the information Fitch relies on in connection with a rating or a report will be accurate and https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-outlook-on-xI-axiata-to-negative-affirms-at-bbb-aaa-idn-27-06-2023 9/12
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7/5/23, 8:07 PM Fitch Revises Outlook on XL Axiata to Negative, Affirms at 'BBB' and 'AAA(idn)' complete. Ultimately, the issuer and its advisers are responsible for the accuracy of the information they provide to Fitch and to the market in offering documents and other reports. In issuing its ratings and its reports, Fitch must rely on the work of experts, including independent auditors with respect to financial statements and attorneys with respect to legal and tax matters. Further, ratings and forecasts of financial and other information are inherently forward-looking and embody assumptions and predictions about future events that by their nature cannot be verified as facts. As a result, despite any verification of current facts, ratings and forecasts can be affected by future events or conditions that were not anticipated at the time a rating or forecast was issued or affirmed. The information in this report is provided “as is” without any representation or warranty of any kind, and Fitch does not represent or warrant that the report or any of its contents will meet any of the reguirements of a recipient of the report. A Fitch rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security. This opinion and reports made by Fitch are based on established criteria and methodologies that Fitch is continuously evaluating and updating. Therefore, ratings and reports are the collective work product of Fitch and no individual, or group of individuals, is solely responsible for a rating or a report. The rating does not address the risk of loss due to risks other than credit risk, unless such risk is specifically mentioned. Fitch is not engaged in the offer or sale of any security. All Fitch reports have shared authorship. Individuals identified in a Fitch report were involved in, but are not solely responsible for, the opinions stated therein. The individuals are named for contact purposes only. A report providing a Fitch rating is neither a prospectus nor a substitute for the information assembled, verified and presented to investors by the issuer and its agents in connection with the sale of the securities. Ratings may be changed or withdrawn at any time for any reason in the sole discretion of Fitch. Fitch does not provide investment advice of any sort. Ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Ratings do not comment on the adeguacy of market price, the suitability of any security for a particular investor, or the tax-exempt nature or taxability of payments made in respect to any security. Fitch receives fees from issuers, insurers, guarantors, other obligors, and underwriters for rating securities. Such fees generally vary from US$1,000 to US$750,000 (or the applicable currency eguivalent) per issue. In certain cases, Fitch will rate all or a number of issues issued by a particular issuer, or insured or guaranteed by a particular insurer or guarantor, for a single annual fee. Such fees are expected to vary from US$10,000 to US$1,500,000 (or the applicable currency eguivalent). The assignment, publication, or dissemination of a rating by Fitch shall not constitute a consent by Fitch to use its name as an expert in connection with any registration statement filed under the United States securities laws, the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 of the United Kingdom, or the securities laws of any particular jurisdiction. Due to the relative efficiency https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-outlook-on-xI-axiata-to-negative-affirms-at-bbb-aaa-idn-27-06-2023 10/12
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7/5/23, 8:07 PM Fitch Revises Outlook on XL Axiata to Negative, Affirms at 'BBB' and 'AAA(idn)' of electronic publishing and distribution, Fitch research may be available to electronic subscribers up to three days earlier than to print subscribers. For Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea only: Fitch Australia Pty Ltd holds an Australian financial services license (AFS license no. 337123) which authorizes it to provide credit ratings to wholesale clients only. Credit ratings information published by Fitch is not intended to be used by persons who are retail clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001.Fitch Ratings, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (the “NRSRO”). While certain of the NRSRO's credit rating subsidiaries are listed on Item 3of Form NRSRO and as such are authorized to issue credit ratings on behalf of the NRSRO (see https://www.fitchratings.com/site/regulatory), other credit rating subsidiaries are not listed on Form NRSRO (the “non-NRSROs”) and therefore credit ratings issued by those subsidiaries are not issued on behalf of the NRSRO. However, non-NRSRO personnel may participate in determining credit ratings issued by or on behalf of the NRSRO. dvO1, a Fitch Solutions company, and an affiliate of Fitch Ratings, may from time to time serve as loan data agent on certain structured finance transactions rated by Fitch Ratings. Copyright O 2023 by Fitch Ratings, Inc., Fitch Ratings Ltd. and its subsidiaries. 33 Whitehall Street, NY, NY 10004. Telephone: 1-800-753-4824, (212) 908-0500. Fax: (212) 480-4435. Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. READ LESS SOLICITATION STATUS The ratings above were solicited and assigned or maintained by Fitch at the reguest of the rated entity/issuer or a related third party. Any exceptions follow below. UNSOLICITED ISSUERS ENTITY/SECURITY ISIN/CUSIP — RATINGTYPE SOLICITATION STATUS PT XL Axiata Tbk - Local Currency Long Term Issuer Unsolicited Default Rating PT XL Axiata Tbk - Long Term Issuer Default Rating Unsolicited https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-outlook-on-xI-axiata-to-negative-affirms-at-bbb-aaa-idn-27-06-2023 1/12
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7/5/23, 8:07 PM Fitch Revises Outlook on XL Axiata to Negative, Affirms at 'BBB' and 'AAA(idn)' ENDORSEMENT POLICY Fitch's international credit ratings produced outside the EU or the UK, as the case may be, are endorsed for use by regulated entities within the EU or the UK, respectively, for regulatory purposes, pursuant to the terms of the EU CRA Regulation or the UK Credit Rating Agencies (Amendment etc.) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019, as the case may be. Fitch's approach to endorsement in the EU and the UK can be found on Fitch's Regulatory Affairs page on Fitch's website. The endorsement status of international credit ratings is provided within the entity summary page for each rated entity and in the transaction detail pages for structured finance transactions on the Fitch website. These disclosures are updated on a daily basis. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-outlook-on-xI-axiata-to-negative-affirms-at-bbb-aaa-idn-27-06-2023 12/12
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