20260306_JSMR_Laporan Hasil Pemeringkatan_32041576_lamp2.pdf

                                                                                                               Rating Rationale


 Key Strengths

 Important role to the   PEFINDO is of the view that JSMR holds an important role to the government in developing toll road infrastructure to support
 government              logistic and land transportation activities as well as create new economic growth centers. JSMR’s importance is reflected in
                         the significant expansion of its toll road portfolio, with 36 concessions as of December 31, 2025, nearly doubled compared to
                         just 19 concessions it held in 2015. Given this important role, we expect the government to maintain control over JSMR through
                         its majority ownership and permanent holding of a golden share, which provides veto rights and can exert a strong influence
                         on JSMR’s strategy and business through the appointment of board members and senior management. In addition, the
                         government has demonstrated support through regulatory measures designed to sustain the viability of toll road operators,
                         including policies that provide greater certainty for land acquisition, allow concession period extension, and enable periodic
                         tariff adjustments to maintain JSMR’s revenue visibility and stability over the long term.

 Dominant position in    We are of the view that JSMR has a very strong business position as the largest toll road operator in Indonesia, having 1,736
 the toll road sector    kilometers (km) of toll road concession rights, including 1,294 km of toll roads operational, accounting for around 42% of the
                         national toll road network by length as of December 31, 2025. Some of JSMR’s toll road assets are located in Greater Jakarta
                         and other big cities in Java, ensuring robust traffic given the relatively strong economy of the areas served. Its future toll roads
                         are also expected to have favorable growth prospects as they are connected with existing toll roads, resulting in an increase
                         in traffic flow. About 500 km of JSMR’s toll roads (around 40% of its toll road portfolio by length) are considered mature toll
                         roads since they have been operational since 2004, ensuring stable traffic (making up for about 50% of JSMR’s toll road
                         revenue in 2025), which further underpins JSMR’s business risk profile.

 Diversified toll road   As the largest toll road operator, JSMR has a diverse toll road portfolio, with nine toll road concessions at the parent level and
 portfolio with a long   27 toll road concessions at the subsidiary level. JSMR’s diversified toll road locations minimize the revenue concentration risk,
 concession period       as none contributed more than 10% over the past three years. These toll roads also have long concession periods, with
                         maturities ranging from 2044-2066, supporting strong revenue visibility and long-term growth prospects, supported by a
                         ramp-up in traffic volume from newly operated toll road assets, new interconnections, and a biannual inflation-link tariff
                         adjustment mechanism. In 2023-2025, JSMR successfully implemented tariff adjustments for almost all of its toll roads despite
                         some delays. JSMR’s traffic grew by 0.4% year-on-year (YoY) in 2025 to 1,306.4 million traffic, while toll revenue increased by
                         5.6% YoY (excluding revenue from PT Jasamarga Jalanlayang Cikampek, which operates the MBZ elevated toll road), reflecting
                         the combined impact of tariff adjustments and stable traffic demand.

 Very strong financial   JSMR’s very strong financial flexibility is underpinned by its good track record in fulfilling all its financial obligations, solid cash
 flexibility             flow generation, and a very strong business position in the industry. It has very strong funding access, supported by its track
                         record of issuance in the debt capital market and long-standing relationships with local banks, with no concentration on one
                         funding source. It has also developed alternative funding sources through asset securitization and de-consolidated ownership
                         in some of its toll road assets using an investment fund scheme. As of December 31, 2025, the Company has IDR22 trillion
                         unused bank loan facilities at the parent level.



 Key Weaknesses

 Business risk related   JSMR remains exposed to development risks associated with the construction and operation of new toll road assets. JSMR is
 to the development of   currently constructing five toll roads, which are the Jakarta-Cikampek II South, Probolinggo-Banyuwangi, Jogjakarta-Bawen,
 new toll roads          Jogjakarta-Solo, and Patimban Access. The simultaneous development of these toll roads introduces execution and ramp-up
                         risks, particularly related to traffic performance during the early years of operation. While JSMR’s strategy of developing
                         interconnecting toll roads may help support traffic growth over time, new toll roads typically face the risk of lower-than-
                         expected traffic volume during the initial operating phase, especially when surrounding economic activity and supporting
                         infrastructure are still developing. If traffic falls short of expectations, the affected assets may face constraints in servicing their
                         financial obligation on a stand-alone basis, thus, requiring the need for a cash deficiency support commitment from JSMR.
                         The Company’s Manado-Bitung toll road, completed in 2022 (with partial operations since 2020), has recorded traffic volumes
                         well below expectations, leading to consecutive losses and expected continued reliance on financial support from JSMR to
                         meet financial obligations and sustain operations.

 High leverage           We anticipate JSMR’s leverage will remain elevated through 2026, with debt to EBITDA projected to exceed 6x, compared
                         with 5.7x in 2025 and 5.2x in 2024. The increment reflects continued debt-funded expansion as JSMR develops new toll road
                         projects totaling more than 400 km, with an estimated total capital expenditure (capex) of around IDR80 trillion. We expect
                         around 70% of this investment will be funded by debt, adding to JSMR’s already sizable debt burden from its previous
                         greenfield toll road investments. Since 2016, JSMR has spent more than IDR80 trillion for capex (excluding bridging funds for
                         land acquisition) to build around 667 km of new toll road assets.




http://www.pefindo.com                                                     2/3                                                                      March 2026

                                                                                                                           Rating Rationale


 Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Factors in the Rating Assessment

 ESG factors are an overall neutral consideration in JSMR’s rating assessment. Social factors are particularly relevant, as mobility restrictions and shifts in
 travelling and logistics behavior, including users’ willingness to pay, may indirectly pressure revenue through lower traffic volume. Nonetheless, the
 pandemic’s one-off nature and the faster rebound of toll road traffic compared to other infrastructure assets suggest that any future mobility restrictions
 would have only a moderate impact on JSMR’s credit profile.




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 was made. The rating is a forward-looking opinion regarding the rated party’s capability to meet its financial obligations fully and on time, based on assumptions
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http://www.pefindo.com                                                                 3/3                                                                        March 2026